Trem 1–2 Independência: Result & Stats | Serie D

Trem

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Independência

J. L. Herculino de Araujo 89'

J. Moreira 52'

Tacio 48'

Acara 90'

Pisika 90'

5/21/2025

Serie D · 1st Phase - 5Estádio Milton Corrêa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Trem45%

×Draw24%

Independência31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TremExpected goals in this matchIndependência

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

1.34

Trem

1.65

Independência

1.34

Trem creates 23% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 14 away

1.72

creates per match

1.29

1.39

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Trem

1.72

Independência

1.29

allows per match

Trem

1.39

Independência

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Trem+0.00on par

Independência+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Trem ↓

Independência →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Trem or draw

69%

Trem or Independência

76%

Draw or Independência

55%

Winning margin

Trem wins by 2+

23%

Independência wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Trem 1+ goals

81%

Trem 2+ goals

49%

Trem 3+ goals

23%

Independência 1+ goals

74%

Independência 2+ goals

39%

Independência 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Trem (draw refunded)

59%

Independência (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Trem at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.39 · 36 matches

Independência away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.57 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Trem attack 1.72 + Independência defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.65

Independência attack 1.29 + Trem defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Trem scores more

45%

level

24%

Independência scores more

31%

Trem at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Trem will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

48'

Tacio

48'

Tacio

52'

J. Moreira

89'

J. L. Herculino de Araujo

89'

J. L. Herculino de Araujo

90'

Acara

90'

Pisika

Trem

Independência

Manager: Sandro Macapá

Trem substitutes

LucasRoniWendelFortalezaMaldinniFilipeGersonAntônioRafinhaRubranGotinhaFelipe

Manager: Ivan Mazzuia

Independência substitutes

PisikaAncelmoAcaráRubensRobertMarquinhosPedroCoitinhoFabrícioSchmidtPablo

Match Recap: Trem vs Independência

Independência beat Trem 2-1 in Serie D on May 21, 2025.

Goals: Tacio (48'), J. Moreira (52'), J. L. Herculino de Araujo (89'), Acara (90'), Pisika (90').

The match was played at Estádio Milton Corrêa in Macapá, Amapá.

Trem vs Independência — Serie D 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Trem vs Independência