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Independência vs Trem — Serie D 2026

Independência
Independência
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Trem
Trem
Anderson Brito 89' (pen)
Eduardo Lopes 36'
Jefferson 77'
Aleilson 57'
6/29/2025Serie DSerie D · 1st Phase - 10Arena Acreana

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Independência47%
×Draw24%
Trem29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Independência
1.63
Trem
1.23

Independência creates 33% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 36 away

creates per match

Independência
1.43
Trem
1.17

allows per match

Independência
1.29
Trem
1.83

finishing

Independência+0.00on par
Trem+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independência ↓

Trem →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Independência or draw
71%
Independência or Trem
76%
Draw or Trem
53%

Winning margin

Independência wins by 2+
24%
Trem wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Independência 1+ goals
80%
Independência 2+ goals
48%
Independência 3+ goals
22%
Trem 1+ goals
71%
Trem 2+ goals
35%
Trem 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Independência (draw refunded)
62%
Trem (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independência at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.29 · 14 matches

Trem away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.83 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independência attack 1.43 + Trem defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.63

Trem attack 1.17 + Independência defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Independência scores more
47%
level
24%
Trem scores more
29%

Independência at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Independência will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

36'
Eduardo Lopes
57'
Aleilson
77'
Jefferson
89'
Anderson BritoPenalty
Independência
Trem
Ivan Mazzuia
Manager: Ivan Mazzuia
Sandro Macapá
Manager: Sandro Macapá

Serie D: Independência 2–2 Trem

Independência and Trem drew 2-2 in Serie D on June 29, 2025.

Goals: Eduardo Lopes (36'), Aleilson (57'), Jefferson (77'), Anderson Brito (89' pen).

The match was played at Arena Acreana in Rio Branco, Acre.