Trelleborg W 3–0 Gamla Upsala W: Result & Stats

Trelleborg W

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Gamla Upsala W

10/11/2025

Elitettan · Round 22Vångavallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Trelleborg W62%

×Draw20%

Gamla Upsala W18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Trelleborg WExpected goals in this matchGamla Upsala W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.21

1.11

Trelleborg W

2.21

Gamla Upsala W

1.11

Trelleborg W creates 99% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 57 away

2.35

creates per match

1.42

0.81

allows per match

2.07

creates per match

Trelleborg W

2.35

Gamla Upsala W

1.42

allows per match

Trelleborg W

0.81

Gamla Upsala W

2.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Trelleborg W+0.00on par

Gamla Upsala W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Trelleborg W ↓

Gamla Upsala W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Trelleborg W or draw

82%

Trelleborg W or Gamla Upsala W

80%

Draw or Gamla Upsala W

38%

Winning margin

Trelleborg W wins by 2+

39%

Gamla Upsala W wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Trelleborg W 1+ goals

89%

Trelleborg W 2+ goals

65%

Trelleborg W 3+ goals

38%

Gamla Upsala W 1+ goals

67%

Gamla Upsala W 2+ goals

30%

Gamla Upsala W 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Trelleborg W (draw refunded)

77%

Gamla Upsala W (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Trelleborg W at home — creates 2.35, concedes 0.81 · 31 matches

Gamla Upsala W away — creates 1.42, concedes 2.07 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Trelleborg W attack 2.35 + Gamla Upsala W defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 2.21

Gamla Upsala W attack 1.42 + Trelleborg W defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Trelleborg W scores more

62%

level

20%

Gamla Upsala W scores more

18%

Trelleborg W at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Trelleborg W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff