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Gamla Upsala W vs Trelleborg W — Elitettan 2021

Gamla Upsala W
Gamla Upsala W
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Trelleborg W
Trelleborg W
11/12/2023ElitettanElitettan · Round 26Lötens IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Gamla Upsala W31%
×Draw22%
Trelleborg W47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gamla Upsala W
1.56
Trelleborg W
1.95

Trelleborg W creates 25% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 31 away

creates per match

Gamla Upsala W
1.67
Trelleborg W
1.74

allows per match

Gamla Upsala W
2.16
Trelleborg W
1.45

finishing

Gamla Upsala W+0.00on par
Trelleborg W+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gamla Upsala W ↓

Trelleborg W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Gamla Upsala W or draw
53%
Gamla Upsala W or Trelleborg W
78%
Draw or Trelleborg W
69%

Winning margin

Gamla Upsala W wins by 2+
15%
Trelleborg W wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Gamla Upsala W 1+ goals
79%
Gamla Upsala W 2+ goals
46%
Gamla Upsala W 3+ goals
21%
Trelleborg W 1+ goals
86%
Trelleborg W 2+ goals
58%
Trelleborg W 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Gamla Upsala W (draw refunded)
40%
Trelleborg W (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gamla Upsala W at home — creates 1.67, concedes 2.16 · 57 matches

Trelleborg W away — creates 1.74, concedes 1.45 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gamla Upsala W attack 1.67 + Trelleborg W defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.56

Trelleborg W attack 1.74 + Gamla Upsala W defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 1.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Gamla Upsala W scores more
31%
level
22%
Trelleborg W scores more
47%

Trelleborg W at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Trelleborg W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gamla Upsala W vs Trelleborg W

Gamla Upsala W beat Trelleborg W 2-1 in Elitettan on November 12, 2023.

The match was played at Lötens IP in Uppsala.