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Trelleborg vs Sirius — Allsvenskan 2018

Trelleborg
Trelleborg
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Sirius
Sirius
10/21/2018AllsvenskanAllsvenskan · Round 26Vångavallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Trelleborg28%
×Draw24%
Sirius48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Trelleborg
1.26
Sirius
1.71

Sirius creates 36% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 126 away

creates per match

Trelleborg
0.80
Sirius
1.21

allows per match

Trelleborg
2.20
Sirius
1.72

finishing

Trelleborg+0.00on par
Sirius+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Trelleborg ↓

Sirius →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Trelleborg or draw
52%
Trelleborg or Sirius
76%
Draw or Sirius
72%

Winning margin

Trelleborg wins by 2+
12%
Sirius wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Trelleborg 1+ goals
72%
Trelleborg 2+ goals
36%
Trelleborg 3+ goals
13%
Sirius 1+ goals
82%
Sirius 2+ goals
51%
Sirius 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Trelleborg (draw refunded)
37%
Sirius (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Trelleborg at home — creates 0.80, concedes 2.20 · 15 matches

Sirius away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.72 · 126 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Trelleborg attack 0.80 + Sirius defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.26

Sirius attack 1.21 + Trelleborg defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Trelleborg scores more
28%
level
24%
Sirius scores more
48%

Sirius at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Sirius will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Allsvenskan: Trelleborg 1–2 Sirius

Sirius beat Trelleborg 2-1 in Allsvenskan on October 21, 2018.

The match was played at Vångavallen in Trelleborg.