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Sirius vs Trelleborg — Allsvenskan 2018

Sirius
Sirius
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Trelleborg
Trelleborg
5/19/2018AllsvenskanAllsvenskan · Round 9Studenternas IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Sirius54%
×Draw22%
Trelleborg24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sirius
1.89
Trelleborg
1.18

Sirius creates 60% more chances

Season form · 126 home / 15 away

creates per match

Sirius
1.71
Trelleborg
0.80

allows per match

Sirius
1.56
Trelleborg
2.07

finishing

Sirius+0.00on par
Trelleborg+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sirius ↓

Trelleborg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Sirius or draw
76%
Sirius or Trelleborg
78%
Draw or Trelleborg
46%

Winning margin

Sirius wins by 2+
31%
Trelleborg wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Sirius 1+ goals
85%
Sirius 2+ goals
56%
Sirius 3+ goals
29%
Trelleborg 1+ goals
69%
Trelleborg 2+ goals
33%
Trelleborg 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Sirius (draw refunded)
69%
Trelleborg (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sirius at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.56 · 126 matches

Trelleborg away — creates 0.80, concedes 2.07 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sirius attack 1.71 + Trelleborg defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.89

Trelleborg attack 0.80 + Sirius defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Sirius scores more
54%
level
22%
Trelleborg scores more
24%

Sirius at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Sirius will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Allsvenskan: Sirius 1–1 Trelleborg

Sirius and Trelleborg drew 1-1 in Allsvenskan on May 19, 2018.

The match was played at Studenternas IP in Uppsala.