Trelleborg 1–0 Ljungskile SK: Result & Stats

Trelleborg

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Ljungskile SK

11/8/2020

Superettan · Round 27Vångavallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Trelleborg46%

×Draw26%

Ljungskile SK28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TrelleborgExpected goals in this matchLjungskile SK

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.47

1.09

Trelleborg

1.47

Ljungskile SK

1.09

Trelleborg creates 35% more chances

Season form · 108 home / 24 away

1.31

creates per match

0.92

1.26

allows per match

1.63

creates per match

Trelleborg

1.31

Ljungskile SK

0.92

allows per match

Trelleborg

1.26

Ljungskile SK

1.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Trelleborg+0.00on par

Ljungskile SK+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Trelleborg ↓

Ljungskile SK →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Trelleborg or draw

72%

Trelleborg or Ljungskile SK

74%

Draw or Ljungskile SK

54%

Winning margin

Trelleborg wins by 2+

23%

Ljungskile SK wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Trelleborg 1+ goals

77%

Trelleborg 2+ goals

43%

Trelleborg 3+ goals

18%

Ljungskile SK 1+ goals

66%

Ljungskile SK 2+ goals

30%

Ljungskile SK 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Trelleborg (draw refunded)

62%

Ljungskile SK (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Trelleborg at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.26 · 108 matches

Ljungskile SK away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.63 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Trelleborg attack 1.31 + Ljungskile SK defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.47

Ljungskile SK attack 0.92 + Trelleborg defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Trelleborg scores more

46%

level

26%

Ljungskile SK scores more

28%

Trelleborg at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Trelleborg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff