Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Ljungskile SK vs Trelleborg — Superettan 2018

Ljungskile SK
Ljungskile SK
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Trelleborg
Trelleborg
6/28/2020SuperettanSuperettan · Round 3Uddevalla Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Ljungskile SK41%
×Draw26%
Trelleborg33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ljungskile SK
1.41
Trelleborg
1.25

Ljungskile SK creates 13% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 110 away

creates per match

Ljungskile SK
1.09
Trelleborg
1.15

allows per match

Ljungskile SK
1.35
Trelleborg
1.72

finishing

Ljungskile SK+0.00on par
Trelleborg+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ljungskile SK ↓

Trelleborg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Ljungskile SK or draw
67%
Ljungskile SK or Trelleborg
74%
Draw or Trelleborg
59%

Winning margin

Ljungskile SK wins by 2+
19%
Trelleborg wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Ljungskile SK 1+ goals
76%
Ljungskile SK 2+ goals
41%
Ljungskile SK 3+ goals
17%
Trelleborg 1+ goals
71%
Trelleborg 2+ goals
36%
Trelleborg 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Ljungskile SK (draw refunded)
55%
Trelleborg (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ljungskile SK at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.35 · 23 matches

Trelleborg away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.72 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ljungskile SK attack 1.09 + Trelleborg defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.41

Trelleborg attack 1.15 + Ljungskile SK defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Ljungskile SK scores more
41%
level
26%
Trelleborg scores more
33%

Ljungskile SK at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Ljungskile SK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ljungskile SK vs Trelleborg

Ljungskile SK beat Trelleborg 2-0 in Superettan on June 28, 2020.

The match was played at Uddevalla Arena in Ljungskile.