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Trelleborg vs Jonkopings Sodra — Superettan 2018

Trelleborg
Trelleborg
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Jonkopings Sodra
Jonkopings Sodra
10/3/2022SuperettanSuperettan · Round 25Vångavallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 90+ matches

Trelleborg41%
×Draw26%
Jonkopings Sodra34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Trelleborg
1.44
Jonkopings Sodra
1.28

Trelleborg creates 13% more chances

Season form · 108 home / 90 away

creates per match

Trelleborg
1.31
Jonkopings Sodra
1.30

allows per match

Trelleborg
1.26
Jonkopings Sodra
1.56

finishing

Trelleborg+0.00on par
Jonkopings Sodra+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Trelleborg ↓

Jonkopings Sodra →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Trelleborg or draw
66%
Trelleborg or Jonkopings Sodra
74%
Draw or Jonkopings Sodra
59%

Winning margin

Trelleborg wins by 2+
19%
Jonkopings Sodra wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Trelleborg 1+ goals
76%
Trelleborg 2+ goals
42%
Trelleborg 3+ goals
18%
Jonkopings Sodra 1+ goals
72%
Jonkopings Sodra 2+ goals
37%
Jonkopings Sodra 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Trelleborg (draw refunded)
55%
Jonkopings Sodra (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Trelleborg at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.26 · 108 matches

Jonkopings Sodra away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.56 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Trelleborg attack 1.31 + Jonkopings Sodra defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.44

Jonkopings Sodra attack 1.30 + Trelleborg defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Trelleborg scores more
41%
level
26%
Jonkopings Sodra scores more
34%

Trelleborg at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Trelleborg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Superettan: Trelleborg 1–3 Jonkopings Sodra

Jonkopings Sodra beat Trelleborg 3-1 in Superettan on October 3, 2022.

The match was played at Vångavallen in Trelleborg.