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Jonkopings Sodra vs Trelleborg — Superettan 2018

Jonkopings Sodra
Jonkopings Sodra
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Trelleborg
Trelleborg
6/10/2023SuperettanSuperettan · Round 12Stadsparksvallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 90+ matches

Jonkopings Sodra48%
×Draw25%
Trelleborg28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jonkopings Sodra
1.61
Trelleborg
1.17

Jonkopings Sodra creates 38% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 110 away

creates per match

Jonkopings Sodra
1.51
Trelleborg
1.15

allows per match

Jonkopings Sodra
1.20
Trelleborg
1.72

finishing

Jonkopings Sodra+0.00on par
Trelleborg+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jonkopings Sodra ↓

Trelleborg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Jonkopings Sodra or draw
72%
Jonkopings Sodra or Trelleborg
75%
Draw or Trelleborg
52%

Winning margin

Jonkopings Sodra wins by 2+
25%
Trelleborg wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Jonkopings Sodra 1+ goals
80%
Jonkopings Sodra 2+ goals
48%
Jonkopings Sodra 3+ goals
22%
Trelleborg 1+ goals
69%
Trelleborg 2+ goals
33%
Trelleborg 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Jonkopings Sodra (draw refunded)
63%
Trelleborg (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jonkopings Sodra at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.20 · 90 matches

Trelleborg away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.72 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jonkopings Sodra attack 1.51 + Trelleborg defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.61

Trelleborg attack 1.15 + Jonkopings Sodra defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Jonkopings Sodra scores more
48%
level
25%
Trelleborg scores more
28%

Jonkopings Sodra at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Jonkopings Sodra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Superettan: Jonkopings Sodra 3–1 Trelleborg

Jonkopings Sodra beat Trelleborg 3-1 in Superettan on June 10, 2023.

The match was played at Stadsparksvallen in Jönköping.