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Trelleborg vs IFK Norrkoping — Allsvenskan 2018

Trelleborg
Trelleborg
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
IFK Norrkoping
IFK Norrkoping
8/31/2018AllsvenskanAllsvenskan · Round 20Vångavallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Trelleborg25%
×Draw23%
IFK Norrkoping52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Trelleborg
1.19
IFK Norrkoping
1.80

IFK Norrkoping creates 51% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 121 away

creates per match

Trelleborg
0.80
IFK Norrkoping
1.40

allows per match

Trelleborg
2.20
IFK Norrkoping
1.57

finishing

Trelleborg+0.00on par
IFK Norrkoping+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Trelleborg ↓

IFK Norrkoping →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–26%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Trelleborg or draw
48%
Trelleborg or IFK Norrkoping
77%
Draw or IFK Norrkoping
75%

Winning margin

Trelleborg wins by 2+
10%
IFK Norrkoping wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Trelleborg 1+ goals
70%
Trelleborg 2+ goals
33%
Trelleborg 3+ goals
12%
IFK Norrkoping 1+ goals
83%
IFK Norrkoping 2+ goals
54%
IFK Norrkoping 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Trelleborg (draw refunded)
33%
IFK Norrkoping (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Trelleborg at home — creates 0.80, concedes 2.20 · 15 matches

IFK Norrkoping away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.57 · 121 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Trelleborg attack 0.80 + IFK Norrkoping defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.19

IFK Norrkoping attack 1.40 + Trelleborg defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 1.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Trelleborg scores more
25%
level
23%
IFK Norrkoping scores more
52%

IFK Norrkoping at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "IFK Norrkoping will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Allsvenskan: Trelleborg 1–1 IFK Norrkoping

Trelleborg and IFK Norrkoping drew 1-1 in Allsvenskan on August 31, 2018.

The match was played at Vångavallen in Trelleborg.