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IFK Norrkoping vs Trelleborg — Allsvenskan 2018

IFK Norrkoping
IFK Norrkoping
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Trelleborg
Trelleborg
4/29/2018AllsvenskanAllsvenskan · Round 6Östgötaporten

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

IFK Norrkoping57%
×Draw23%
Trelleborg21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

IFK Norrkoping
1.87
Trelleborg
1.04

IFK Norrkoping creates 80% more chances

Season form · 121 home / 15 away

creates per match

IFK Norrkoping
1.67
Trelleborg
0.80

allows per match

IFK Norrkoping
1.27
Trelleborg
2.07

finishing

IFK Norrkoping+0.00on par
Trelleborg+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IFK Norrkoping ↓

Trelleborg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

IFK Norrkoping or draw
79%
IFK Norrkoping or Trelleborg
77%
Draw or Trelleborg
43%

Winning margin

IFK Norrkoping wins by 2+
33%
Trelleborg wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

IFK Norrkoping 1+ goals
85%
IFK Norrkoping 2+ goals
56%
IFK Norrkoping 3+ goals
29%
Trelleborg 1+ goals
65%
Trelleborg 2+ goals
28%
Trelleborg 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

IFK Norrkoping (draw refunded)
73%
Trelleborg (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

IFK Norrkoping at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.27 · 121 matches

Trelleborg away — creates 0.80, concedes 2.07 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

IFK Norrkoping attack 1.67 + Trelleborg defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.87

Trelleborg attack 0.80 + IFK Norrkoping defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

IFK Norrkoping scores more
57%
level
23%
Trelleborg scores more
21%

IFK Norrkoping at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "IFK Norrkoping will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Allsvenskan: IFK Norrkoping 1–2 Trelleborg

Trelleborg beat IFK Norrkoping 2-1 in Allsvenskan on April 29, 2018.

The match was played at Östgötaporten in Norrkoping.