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Trelleborg vs IFK Goteborg — Allsvenskan 2018

Trelleborg
Trelleborg
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
IFK Goteborg
IFK Goteborg
4/1/2018AllsvenskanAllsvenskan · Round 1Vångavallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Trelleborg26%
×Draw24%
IFK Goteborg51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Trelleborg
1.17
IFK Goteborg
1.75

IFK Goteborg creates 50% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 127 away

creates per match

Trelleborg
0.80
IFK Goteborg
1.29

allows per match

Trelleborg
2.20
IFK Goteborg
1.53

finishing

Trelleborg+0.00on par
IFK Goteborg+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Trelleborg ↓

IFK Goteborg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Trelleborg or draw
49%
Trelleborg or IFK Goteborg
76%
Draw or IFK Goteborg
74%

Winning margin

Trelleborg wins by 2+
10%
IFK Goteborg wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Trelleborg 1+ goals
69%
Trelleborg 2+ goals
33%
Trelleborg 3+ goals
11%
IFK Goteborg 1+ goals
83%
IFK Goteborg 2+ goals
52%
IFK Goteborg 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Trelleborg (draw refunded)
33%
IFK Goteborg (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Trelleborg at home — creates 0.80, concedes 2.20 · 15 matches

IFK Goteborg away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.53 · 127 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Trelleborg attack 0.80 + IFK Goteborg defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.17

IFK Goteborg attack 1.29 + Trelleborg defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Trelleborg scores more
26%
level
24%
IFK Goteborg scores more
51%

IFK Goteborg at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "IFK Goteborg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Allsvenskan: Trelleborg 1–3 IFK Goteborg

IFK Goteborg beat Trelleborg 3-1 in Allsvenskan on April 1, 2018.

The match was played at Vångavallen in Trelleborg.