IFK Goteborg 2–2 Trelleborg: Result & Stats

IFK Goteborg

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Trelleborg

10/6/2018

Allsvenskan · Round 25Gamla Ullevi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

IFK Goteborg53%

×Draw24%

Trelleborg23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IFK GoteborgExpected goals in this matchTrelleborg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

1.00

IFK Goteborg

1.67

Trelleborg

1.00

IFK Goteborg creates 67% more chances

Season form · 125 home / 15 away

1.28

creates per match

0.80

1.20

allows per match

2.07

creates per match

IFK Goteborg

1.28

Trelleborg

0.80

allows per match

IFK Goteborg

1.20

Trelleborg

2.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

IFK Goteborg+0.00on par

Trelleborg+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IFK Goteborg ↓

Trelleborg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

IFK Goteborg or draw

77%

IFK Goteborg or Trelleborg

76%

Draw or Trelleborg

47%

Winning margin

IFK Goteborg wins by 2+

29%

Trelleborg wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

IFK Goteborg 1+ goals

81%

IFK Goteborg 2+ goals

50%

IFK Goteborg 3+ goals

23%

Trelleborg 1+ goals

63%

Trelleborg 2+ goals

26%

Trelleborg 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

IFK Goteborg (draw refunded)

70%

Trelleborg (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

IFK Goteborg at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.20 · 125 matches

Trelleborg away — creates 0.80, concedes 2.07 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

IFK Goteborg attack 1.28 + Trelleborg defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.67

Trelleborg attack 0.80 + IFK Goteborg defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

IFK Goteborg scores more

53%

level

24%

Trelleborg scores more

23%

IFK Goteborg at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "IFK Goteborg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff