Trelleborg 1–3 Hammarby FF: Result & Stats

Trelleborg

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Hammarby FF

7/30/2018

Allsvenskan · Round 15Vångavallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Trelleborg22%

×Draw23%

Hammarby FF55%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TrelleborgExpected goals in this matchHammarby FF

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.06

1.83

Trelleborg

1.06

Hammarby FF

1.83

Hammarby FF creates 73% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 126 away

0.80

creates per match

1.45

2.20

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Trelleborg

0.80

Hammarby FF

1.45

allows per match

Trelleborg

2.20

Hammarby FF

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Trelleborg+0.00on par

Hammarby FF+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Trelleborg ↓

Hammarby FF →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–110%

0–29%

0–36%

0–43%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Trelleborg or draw

45%

Trelleborg or Hammarby FF

77%

Draw or Hammarby FF

78%

Winning margin

Trelleborg wins by 2+

8%

Hammarby FF wins by 2+

31%

Team goals

Trelleborg 1+ goals

65%

Trelleborg 2+ goals

29%

Trelleborg 3+ goals

9%

Hammarby FF 1+ goals

84%

Hammarby FF 2+ goals

54%

Hammarby FF 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Trelleborg (draw refunded)

28%

Hammarby FF (draw refunded)

72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Trelleborg at home — creates 0.80, concedes 2.20 · 15 matches

Hammarby FF away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.33 · 126 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Trelleborg attack 0.80 + Hammarby FF defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.06

Hammarby FF attack 1.45 + Trelleborg defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Trelleborg scores more

22%

level

23%

Hammarby FF scores more

55%

Hammarby FF at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Hammarby FF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff