Hammarby FF 1–0 Trelleborg: Result & Stats

Hammarby FF

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Trelleborg

8/5/2018

Allsvenskan · Round 16Tele2 Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Hammarby FF66%

×Draw19%

Trelleborg15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hammarby FFExpected goals in this matchTrelleborg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.16

0.91

Hammarby FF

2.16

Trelleborg

0.91

Hammarby FF creates 137% more chances

Season form · 127 home / 15 away

2.25

creates per match

0.80

1.01

allows per match

2.07

creates per match

Hammarby FF

2.25

Trelleborg

0.80

allows per match

Hammarby FF

1.01

Trelleborg

2.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hammarby FF+0.00on par

Trelleborg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hammarby FF ↓

Trelleborg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Hammarby FF or draw

85%

Hammarby FF or Trelleborg

81%

Draw or Trelleborg

34%

Winning margin

Hammarby FF wins by 2+

42%

Trelleborg wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Hammarby FF 1+ goals

88%

Hammarby FF 2+ goals

63%

Hammarby FF 3+ goals

36%

Trelleborg 1+ goals

60%

Trelleborg 2+ goals

23%

Trelleborg 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Hammarby FF (draw refunded)

82%

Trelleborg (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hammarby FF at home — creates 2.25, concedes 1.01 · 127 matches

Trelleborg away — creates 0.80, concedes 2.07 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hammarby FF attack 2.25 + Trelleborg defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 2.16

Trelleborg attack 0.80 + Hammarby FF defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Hammarby FF scores more

66%

level

19%

Trelleborg scores more

15%

Hammarby FF at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Hammarby FF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff