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Trelleborg vs AIK Stockholm — Svenska Cupen 2019

Trelleborg
Trelleborg
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
AIK Stockholm
AIK Stockholm
2/22/2025Svenska CupenSvenska Cupen · Group Stage - 2Malmö IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Trelleborg19%
×Draw20%
AIK Stockholm61%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Trelleborg
1.11
AIK Stockholm
2.14

AIK Stockholm creates 93% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 19 away

creates per match

Trelleborg
1.17
AIK Stockholm
3.11

allows per match

Trelleborg
1.17
AIK Stockholm
1.05

finishing

Trelleborg+0.00on par
AIK Stockholm+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Trelleborg ↓

AIK Stockholm →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–29%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Trelleborg or draw
39%
Trelleborg or AIK Stockholm
80%
Draw or AIK Stockholm
81%

Winning margin

Trelleborg wins by 2+
7%
AIK Stockholm wins by 2+
38%

Team goals

Trelleborg 1+ goals
67%
Trelleborg 2+ goals
30%
Trelleborg 3+ goals
10%
AIK Stockholm 1+ goals
88%
AIK Stockholm 2+ goals
63%
AIK Stockholm 3+ goals
36%

Draw no bet

Trelleborg (draw refunded)
24%
AIK Stockholm (draw refunded)
76%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Trelleborg at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.17 · 6 matches

AIK Stockholm away — creates 3.11, concedes 1.05 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Trelleborg attack 1.17 + AIK Stockholm defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.11

AIK Stockholm attack 3.11 + Trelleborg defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 2.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Trelleborg scores more
19%
level
20%
AIK Stockholm scores more
61%

AIK Stockholm at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "AIK Stockholm will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Trelleborg vs AIK Stockholm

Trelleborg and AIK Stockholm drew 1-1 in Svenska Cupen on February 22, 2025.

The match was played at Malmö IP in Malmö.