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AIK Stockholm vs Trelleborg — Allsvenskan 2018

AIK Stockholm
AIK Stockholm
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Trelleborg
Trelleborg
8/26/2018AllsvenskanAllsvenskan · Round 19Friends Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

AIK Stockholm61%
×Draw23%
Trelleborg16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AIK Stockholm
1.80
Trelleborg
0.80

AIK Stockholm creates 125% more chances

Season form · 125 home / 15 away

creates per match

AIK Stockholm
1.53
Trelleborg
0.80

allows per match

AIK Stockholm
0.80
Trelleborg
2.07

finishing

AIK Stockholm+0.00on par
Trelleborg+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AIK Stockholm ↓

Trelleborg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

AIK Stockholm or draw
84%
AIK Stockholm or Trelleborg
77%
Draw or Trelleborg
39%

Winning margin

AIK Stockholm wins by 2+
35%
Trelleborg wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

AIK Stockholm 1+ goals
83%
AIK Stockholm 2+ goals
54%
AIK Stockholm 3+ goals
27%
Trelleborg 1+ goals
55%
Trelleborg 2+ goals
19%
Trelleborg 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

AIK Stockholm (draw refunded)
79%
Trelleborg (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AIK Stockholm at home — creates 1.53, concedes 0.80 · 125 matches

Trelleborg away — creates 0.80, concedes 2.07 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AIK Stockholm attack 1.53 + Trelleborg defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.80

Trelleborg attack 0.80 + AIK Stockholm defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

AIK Stockholm scores more
61%
level
23%
Trelleborg scores more
16%

AIK Stockholm at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "AIK Stockholm will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Allsvenskan: AIK Stockholm 2–0 Trelleborg

AIK Stockholm beat Trelleborg 2-0 in Allsvenskan on August 26, 2018.

The match was played at Friends Arena in Solna.