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Treibach vs St. Michael Bleiburg — Landesliga - Karnten 2019

Treibach
Treibach
FT
4 – 1
St. Michael Bleiburg
St. Michael Bleiburg
10/16/2020Landesliga - KarntenLandesliga - Karnten · Kärnten - 12Turnerwald-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Treibach68%
×Draw18%
St. Michael Bleiburg14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Treibach
2.43
St. Michael Bleiburg
1.03

Treibach creates 136% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 31 away

creates per match

Treibach
2.84
St. Michael Bleiburg
1.16

allows per match

Treibach
0.90
St. Michael Bleiburg
2.03

finishing

Treibach+0.00on par
St. Michael Bleiburg+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Treibach ↓

St. Michael Bleiburg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Treibach or draw
86%
Treibach or St. Michael Bleiburg
82%
Draw or St. Michael Bleiburg
32%

Winning margin

Treibach wins by 2+
45%
St. Michael Bleiburg wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Treibach 1+ goals
91%
Treibach 2+ goals
69%
Treibach 3+ goals
43%
St. Michael Bleiburg 1+ goals
64%
St. Michael Bleiburg 2+ goals
28%
St. Michael Bleiburg 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Treibach (draw refunded)
82%
St. Michael Bleiburg (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Treibach at home — creates 2.84, concedes 0.90 · 31 matches

St. Michael Bleiburg away — creates 1.16, concedes 2.03 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Treibach attack 2.84 + St. Michael Bleiburg defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 2.43

St. Michael Bleiburg attack 1.16 + Treibach defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Treibach scores more
68%
level
18%
St. Michael Bleiburg scores more
14%

Treibach at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Treibach will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Treibach vs St. Michael Bleiburg

Treibach beat St. Michael Bleiburg 4-1 in Landesliga - Karnten on October 16, 2020.

The match was played at Turnerwald-Stadion in Althofen.