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St. Michael Bleiburg vs Treibach — Landesliga - Karnten 2019

St. Michael Bleiburg
St. Michael Bleiburg
CANC
21:00
Treibach
Treibach
5/23/2021Landesliga - KarntenLandesliga - Karnten · Kärnten - 27Sportpark St. Michael

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

St. Michael Bleiburg25%
×Draw20%
Treibach55%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

St. Michael Bleiburg
1.46
Treibach
2.25

Treibach creates 54% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 29 away

creates per match

St. Michael Bleiburg
1.39
Treibach
2.07

allows per match

St. Michael Bleiburg
2.42
Treibach
1.52

finishing

St. Michael Bleiburg+0.00on par
Treibach+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

St. Michael Bleiburg ↓

Treibach →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–16%
0–26%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

St. Michael Bleiburg or draw
45%
St. Michael Bleiburg or Treibach
80%
Draw or Treibach
75%

Winning margin

St. Michael Bleiburg wins by 2+
11%
Treibach wins by 2+
34%

Team goals

St. Michael Bleiburg 1+ goals
77%
St. Michael Bleiburg 2+ goals
43%
St. Michael Bleiburg 3+ goals
18%
Treibach 1+ goals
89%
Treibach 2+ goals
65%
Treibach 3+ goals
39%

Draw no bet

St. Michael Bleiburg (draw refunded)
31%
Treibach (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

St. Michael Bleiburg at home — creates 1.39, concedes 2.42 · 33 matches

Treibach away — creates 2.07, concedes 1.52 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

St. Michael Bleiburg attack 1.39 + Treibach defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.46

Treibach attack 2.07 + St. Michael Bleiburg defence 2.42 → ÷2 → 2.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

St. Michael Bleiburg scores more
25%
level
20%
Treibach scores more
55%

Treibach at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Treibach will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

St. Michael Bleiburg vs Treibach — Match Preview

St. Michael Bleiburg face Treibach on May 23, 2021 in this Landesliga - Karnten fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

St. Michael Bleiburg host Treibach at Sportpark St. Michael.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.