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Trefelin vs Caerau (Ely) — League #111 2026

Trefelin
Trefelin
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Caerau (Ely)
Caerau (Ely)
J. Jones 55'
L. Caramella-Gerrard 36'
J. Jones 8'
12/26/2025League #111League #111 · South - 17Ynys Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Trefelin45%
×Draw23%
Caerau (Ely)32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Trefelin
1.78
Caerau (Ely)
1.47

Trefelin creates 21% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 20 away

creates per match

Trefelin
1.67
Caerau (Ely)
1.60

allows per match

Trefelin
1.33
Caerau (Ely)
1.90

finishing

Trefelin+0.00on par
Caerau (Ely)+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Trefelin ↓

Caerau (Ely) →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Trefelin or draw
68%
Trefelin or Caerau (Ely)
77%
Draw or Caerau (Ely)
55%

Winning margin

Trefelin wins by 2+
24%
Caerau (Ely) wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Trefelin 1+ goals
83%
Trefelin 2+ goals
53%
Trefelin 3+ goals
26%
Caerau (Ely) 1+ goals
77%
Caerau (Ely) 2+ goals
43%
Caerau (Ely) 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Trefelin (draw refunded)
58%
Caerau (Ely) (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Trefelin at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

Caerau (Ely) away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.90 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Trefelin attack 1.67 + Caerau (Ely) defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.78

Caerau (Ely) attack 1.60 + Trefelin defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Trefelin scores more
45%
level
23%
Caerau (Ely) scores more
32%

Trefelin at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Trefelin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'
J. Jones
36'
L. Caramella-Gerrard
55'
J. Jones

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Trefelin vs Caerau (Ely)

Trefelin beat Caerau (Ely) 3-0 in League #111 on December 26, 2025.

Goals: J. Jones (8', 55'), L. Caramella-Gerrard (36').

The match was played at Ynys Park in Port Talbot.