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Caerau (Ely) vs Trefelin — League #111 2026

Caerau (Ely)
Caerau (Ely)
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Trefelin
Trefelin
1/16/2026League #111League #111

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Caerau (Ely)19%
×Draw21%
Trefelin60%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Caerau (Ely)
1.06
Trefelin
2.07

Trefelin creates 95% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 3 away

creates per match

Caerau (Ely)
1.79
Trefelin
2.67

allows per match

Caerau (Ely)
1.47
Trefelin
0.33

finishing

Caerau (Ely)+0.00on par
Trefelin+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Caerau (Ely) ↓

Trefelin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–19%
0–29%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–25%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Caerau (Ely) or draw
40%
Caerau (Ely) or Trefelin
79%
Draw or Trefelin
81%

Winning margin

Caerau (Ely) wins by 2+
7%
Trefelin wins by 2+
37%

Team goals

Caerau (Ely) 1+ goals
65%
Caerau (Ely) 2+ goals
29%
Caerau (Ely) 3+ goals
9%
Trefelin 1+ goals
87%
Trefelin 2+ goals
61%
Trefelin 3+ goals
34%

Draw no bet

Caerau (Ely) (draw refunded)
24%
Trefelin (draw refunded)
76%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Caerau (Ely) at home — creates 1.79, concedes 1.47 · 19 matches

Trefelin away — creates 2.67, concedes 0.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Caerau (Ely) attack 1.79 + Trefelin defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 1.06

Trefelin attack 2.67 + Caerau (Ely) defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 2.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Caerau (Ely) scores more
19%
level
21%
Trefelin scores more
60%

Trefelin at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Trefelin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #111: Caerau (Ely) 1–2 Trefelin

Trefelin beat Caerau (Ely) 2-1 in League #111 on January 16, 2026.