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Treaty Utd W vs Cork City W — All-Island Cup - Women 2026

Treaty Utd W
Treaty Utd W
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Cork City W
Cork City W
M. Cumes 86'
E. Mangan 65'
C. Dring 29'
F. Bradley 11'
6/24/2023All-Island Cup - WomenAll-Island Cup - Women · Group Stage - 2Markets Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Treaty Utd W42%
×Draw25%
Cork City W34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Treaty Utd W
1.56
Cork City W
1.38

Treaty Utd W creates 13% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 8 away

creates per match

Treaty Utd W
1.25
Cork City W
1.25

allows per match

Treaty Utd W
1.50
Cork City W
1.88

finishing

Treaty Utd W+0.00on par
Cork City W+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Treaty Utd W ↓

Cork City W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Treaty Utd W or draw
66%
Treaty Utd W or Cork City W
75%
Draw or Cork City W
58%

Winning margin

Treaty Utd W wins by 2+
21%
Cork City W wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Treaty Utd W 1+ goals
79%
Treaty Utd W 2+ goals
46%
Treaty Utd W 3+ goals
21%
Cork City W 1+ goals
75%
Cork City W 2+ goals
40%
Cork City W 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Treaty Utd W (draw refunded)
55%
Cork City W (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Treaty Utd W at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.50 · 8 matches

Cork City W away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.88 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Treaty Utd W attack 1.25 + Cork City W defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.56

Cork City W attack 1.25 + Treaty Utd W defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Treaty Utd W scores more
42%
level
25%
Cork City W scores more
34%

Treaty Utd W at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Treaty Utd W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'
F. Bradley
29'
C. Dring
65'
E. Mangan
86'
M. Cumes

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

All-Island Cup - Women: Treaty Utd W 1–3 Cork City W

Cork City W beat Treaty Utd W 3-1 in All-Island Cup - Women on June 24, 2023.

Goals: F. Bradley (11'), C. Dring (29'), E. Mangan (65'), M. Cumes (86').

The match was played at Markets Field in Limerick.