Cork City W 0–0 Treaty Utd W: Result & Stats

Cork City W

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Treaty Utd W

5/9/2026

All-Island Cup - Women · Group Stage - 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Cork City W36%

×Draw26%

Treaty Utd W38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Cork City WExpected goals in this matchTreaty Utd W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.33

Cork City W

1.29

Treaty Utd W

1.33

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 5 home / 7 away

1.00

creates per match

0.86

1.80

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Cork City W

1.00

Treaty Utd W

0.86

allows per match

Cork City W

1.80

Treaty Utd W

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cork City W+0.00on par

Treaty Utd W+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cork City W ↓

Treaty Utd W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Cork City W or draw

62%

Cork City W or Treaty Utd W

74%

Draw or Treaty Utd W

64%

Winning margin

Cork City W wins by 2+

16%

Treaty Utd W wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Cork City W 1+ goals

72%

Cork City W 2+ goals

37%

Cork City W 3+ goals

14%

Treaty Utd W 1+ goals

74%

Treaty Utd W 2+ goals

38%

Treaty Utd W 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Cork City W (draw refunded)

49%

Treaty Utd W (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cork City W at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

Treaty Utd W away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.57 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cork City W attack 1.00 + Treaty Utd W defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.29

Treaty Utd W attack 0.86 + Cork City W defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Cork City W scores more

36%

level

26%

Treaty Utd W scores more

38%

Treaty Utd W at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Treaty Utd W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff