Treaty Utd W 3–1 Athlone WFC W: Result & Stats

Treaty Utd W

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Athlone WFC W

5/30/2026

All-Island Cup - Women · Group Stage - 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Treaty Utd W30%

×Draw25%

Athlone WFC W45%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Treaty Utd WExpected goals in this matchAthlone WFC W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.58

Treaty Utd W

1.23

Athlone WFC W

1.58

Athlone WFC W creates 28% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 9 away

1.25

creates per match

1.67

1.50

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Treaty Utd W

1.25

Athlone WFC W

1.67

allows per match

Treaty Utd W

1.50

Athlone WFC W

1.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Treaty Utd W+0.00on par

Athlone WFC W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Treaty Utd W ↓

Athlone WFC W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–110%

0–28%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Treaty Utd W or draw

55%

Treaty Utd W or Athlone WFC W

75%

Draw or Athlone WFC W

70%

Winning margin

Treaty Utd W wins by 2+

12%

Athlone WFC W wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Treaty Utd W 1+ goals

71%

Treaty Utd W 2+ goals

35%

Treaty Utd W 3+ goals

13%

Athlone WFC W 1+ goals

79%

Athlone WFC W 2+ goals

47%

Athlone WFC W 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Treaty Utd W (draw refunded)

40%

Athlone WFC W (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Treaty Utd W at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.50 · 8 matches

Athlone WFC W away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.22 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Treaty Utd W attack 1.25 + Athlone WFC W defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.23

Athlone WFC W attack 1.67 + Treaty Utd W defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Treaty Utd W scores more

30%

level

25%

Athlone WFC W scores more

45%

Athlone WFC W at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Athlone WFC W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff