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Athlone WFC W vs Treaty Utd W — All-Island Cup - Women 2026

Athlone WFC W
Athlone WFC W
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Treaty Utd W
Treaty Utd W
K. Lawlee 76'
5/24/2025All-Island Cup - WomenAll-Island Cup - Women · Group Stage - 2Athlone Town Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Athlone WFC W42%
×Draw26%
Treaty Utd W31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Athlone WFC W
1.41
Treaty Utd W
1.18

Athlone WFC W creates 19% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 7 away

creates per match

Athlone WFC W
1.25
Treaty Utd W
0.86

allows per match

Athlone WFC W
1.50
Treaty Utd W
1.57

finishing

Athlone WFC W+0.00on par
Treaty Utd W+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Athlone WFC W ↓

Treaty Utd W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Athlone WFC W or draw
69%
Athlone WFC W or Treaty Utd W
74%
Draw or Treaty Utd W
58%

Winning margin

Athlone WFC W wins by 2+
20%
Treaty Utd W wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Athlone WFC W 1+ goals
76%
Athlone WFC W 2+ goals
41%
Athlone WFC W 3+ goals
17%
Treaty Utd W 1+ goals
69%
Treaty Utd W 2+ goals
33%
Treaty Utd W 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Athlone WFC W (draw refunded)
57%
Treaty Utd W (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Athlone WFC W at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

Treaty Utd W away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.57 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Athlone WFC W attack 1.25 + Treaty Utd W defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.41

Treaty Utd W attack 0.86 + Athlone WFC W defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Athlone WFC W scores more
42%
level
26%
Treaty Utd W scores more
31%

Athlone WFC W at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Athlone WFC W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

76'
K. Lawlee

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Athlone WFC W vs Treaty Utd W

Treaty Utd W beat Athlone WFC W 1-0 in All-Island Cup - Women on May 24, 2025.

Goals: K. Lawlee (76').

The match was played at Athlone Town Stadium in Athlone.