Treaty United 1–2 UCD: Result & Stats | FAI Cup

Treaty United

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

UCD

7/17/2026

FAI Cup · Round of 32Markets Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Treaty United52%

×Draw20%

UCD28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Treaty UnitedExpected goals in this matchUCD

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.29

1.64

Treaty United

2.29

UCD

1.64

Treaty United creates 40% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 7 away

2.57

creates per match

1.71

1.57

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Treaty United

2.57

UCD

1.71

allows per match

Treaty United

1.57

UCD

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Treaty United+0.00on par

UCD+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Treaty United ↓

UCD →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–23%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–17%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–04%

3–17%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

75%25%3.5

55%45%4.5

35%65%

Double chance

Treaty United or draw

72%

Treaty United or UCD

80%

Draw or UCD

48%

Winning margin

Treaty United wins by 2+

32%

UCD wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Treaty United 1+ goals

90%

Treaty United 2+ goals

66%

Treaty United 3+ goals

40%

UCD 1+ goals

81%

UCD 2+ goals

49%

UCD 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Treaty United (draw refunded)

65%

UCD (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

65%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Treaty United at home — creates 2.57, concedes 1.57 · 7 matches

UCD away — creates 1.71, concedes 2.00 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Treaty United attack 2.57 + UCD defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.29

UCD attack 1.71 + Treaty United defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Treaty United scores more

52%

level

20%

UCD scores more

28%

Treaty United at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Treaty United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff