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Treaty United vs UCD — First Division 2019

Treaty United
Treaty United
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
UCD
UCD
4/24/2026First DivisionFirst Division · Round 12Markets Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

Treaty United35%
×Draw25%
UCD41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Treaty United
1.38
UCD
1.52

UCD creates 10% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 74 away

creates per match

Treaty United
1.35
UCD
1.70

allows per match

Treaty United
1.35
UCD
1.41

finishing

Treaty United+0.00on par
UCD+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Treaty United ↓

UCD →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
79%21%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Treaty United or draw
59%
Treaty United or UCD
75%
Draw or UCD
65%

Winning margin

Treaty United wins by 2+
16%
UCD wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Treaty United 1+ goals
75%
Treaty United 2+ goals
40%
Treaty United 3+ goals
16%
UCD 1+ goals
78%
UCD 2+ goals
45%
UCD 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Treaty United (draw refunded)
46%
UCD (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Treaty United at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.35 · 97 matches

UCD away — creates 1.70, concedes 1.41 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Treaty United attack 1.35 + UCD defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.38

UCD attack 1.70 + Treaty United defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Treaty United scores more
35%
level
25%
UCD scores more
41%

UCD at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "UCD will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First Division: Treaty United 0–3 UCD

UCD beat Treaty United 3-0 in First Division on April 24, 2026.

The match was played at Markets Field in Limerick.