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Treaty United vs Kerry — First Division 2019

Treaty United
Treaty United
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Kerry
Kerry
3/6/2026First DivisionFirst Division · Round 4Markets Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Treaty United51%
×Draw24%
Kerry25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Treaty United
1.70
Kerry
1.13

Treaty United creates 50% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 66 away

creates per match

Treaty United
1.35
Kerry
0.91

allows per match

Treaty United
1.35
Kerry
2.05

finishing

Treaty United+0.00on par
Kerry+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Treaty United ↓

Kerry →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Treaty United or draw
75%
Treaty United or Kerry
76%
Draw or Kerry
49%

Winning margin

Treaty United wins by 2+
27%
Kerry wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Treaty United 1+ goals
82%
Treaty United 2+ goals
51%
Treaty United 3+ goals
24%
Kerry 1+ goals
68%
Kerry 2+ goals
31%
Kerry 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Treaty United (draw refunded)
67%
Kerry (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Treaty United at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.35 · 97 matches

Kerry away — creates 0.91, concedes 2.05 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Treaty United attack 1.35 + Kerry defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 1.70

Kerry attack 0.91 + Treaty United defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Treaty United scores more
51%
level
24%
Kerry scores more
25%

Treaty United at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Treaty United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First Division: Treaty United 2–2 Kerry

Treaty United and Kerry drew 2-2 in First Division on March 6, 2026.

The match was played at Markets Field in Limerick.