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Kerry vs Treaty United — First Division 2019

Kerry
Kerry
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Treaty United
Treaty United
4/17/2026First DivisionFirst Division · Round 11Mounthawk Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

Kerry34%
×Draw27%
Treaty United39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kerry
1.21
Treaty United
1.32

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 65 home / 99 away

creates per match

Kerry
1.03
Treaty United
1.13

allows per match

Kerry
1.51
Treaty United
1.38

finishing

Kerry+0.00on par
Treaty United+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kerry ↓

Treaty United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Kerry or draw
61%
Kerry or Treaty United
73%
Draw or Treaty United
66%

Winning margin

Kerry wins by 2+
14%
Treaty United wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Kerry 1+ goals
70%
Kerry 2+ goals
34%
Kerry 3+ goals
12%
Treaty United 1+ goals
73%
Treaty United 2+ goals
38%
Treaty United 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Kerry (draw refunded)
46%
Treaty United (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kerry at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.51 · 65 matches

Treaty United away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.38 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kerry attack 1.03 + Treaty United defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.21

Treaty United attack 1.13 + Kerry defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Kerry scores more
34%
level
27%
Treaty United scores more
39%

Treaty United at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Treaty United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kerry vs Treaty United

Kerry and Treaty United drew 1-1 in First Division on April 17, 2026.

The match was played at Mounthawk Park in Tralee.