Tre Penne 5–1 Libertas: Result & Stats

Tre Penne

FT

5 – 1

HT: 3 – 1

Libertas

12/6/2023

Coppa Titano · Quarter-finalsStadio Fonte Dell'Ovo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Tre Penne58%

×Draw23%

Libertas19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tre PenneExpected goals in this matchLibertas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.80

0.94

Tre Penne

1.80

Libertas

0.94

Tre Penne creates 91% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 10 away

2.00

creates per match

0.80

1.08

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Tre Penne

2.00

Libertas

0.80

allows per match

Tre Penne

1.08

Libertas

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tre Penne+0.00on par

Libertas+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tre Penne ↓

Libertas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Tre Penne or draw

81%

Tre Penne or Libertas

77%

Draw or Libertas

42%

Winning margin

Tre Penne wins by 2+

33%

Libertas wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Tre Penne 1+ goals

83%

Tre Penne 2+ goals

54%

Tre Penne 3+ goals

27%

Libertas 1+ goals

61%

Libertas 2+ goals

24%

Libertas 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Tre Penne (draw refunded)

75%

Libertas (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tre Penne at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.08 · 13 matches

Libertas away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.60 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tre Penne attack 2.00 + Libertas defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.80

Libertas attack 0.80 + Tre Penne defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Tre Penne scores more

58%

level

23%

Libertas scores more

19%

Tre Penne at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Tre Penne will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff