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Libertas vs Tre Penne — Coppa Titano 2020

Libertas
Libertas
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 3
Tre Penne
Tre Penneadvanced
11/8/2023Coppa TitanoCoppa Titano · Quarter-finalsStadio di Domagnano

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Libertas24%
×Draw20%
Tre Penne56%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Libertas
1.44
Tre Penne
2.28

Tre Penne creates 58% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 14 away

creates per match

Libertas
1.67
Tre Penne
2.00

allows per match

Libertas
2.56
Tre Penne
1.21

finishing

Libertas+0.00on par
Tre Penne+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Libertas ↓

Tre Penne →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–16%
0–26%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Libertas or draw
44%
Libertas or Tre Penne
80%
Draw or Tre Penne
76%

Winning margin

Libertas wins by 2+
10%
Tre Penne wins by 2+
35%

Team goals

Libertas 1+ goals
76%
Libertas 2+ goals
42%
Libertas 3+ goals
18%
Tre Penne 1+ goals
90%
Tre Penne 2+ goals
66%
Tre Penne 3+ goals
39%

Draw no bet

Libertas (draw refunded)
30%
Tre Penne (draw refunded)
70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Libertas at home — creates 1.67, concedes 2.56 · 9 matches

Tre Penne away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.21 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Libertas attack 1.67 + Tre Penne defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.44

Tre Penne attack 2.00 + Libertas defence 2.56 → ÷2 → 2.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Libertas scores more
24%
level
20%
Tre Penne scores more
56%

Tre Penne at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Tre Penne will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Coppa Titano: Libertas 1–3 Tre Penne

Tre Penne beat Libertas 3-1 in Coppa Titano on November 8, 2023.

The match was played at Stadio di Domagnano in Domagnano.