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Tre Penne vs Juvenes / Dogana — Coppa Titano 2020

Tre Penne
Tre Penne
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
Juvenes / Dogana
Juvenes / Doganaadvanced
11/30/2022Coppa TitanoCoppa Titano · Quarter-finalsStadio di Dogana Ezio Conti

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Tre Penne50%
×Draw24%
Juvenes / Dogana26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tre Penne
1.70
Juvenes / Dogana
1.14

Tre Penne creates 49% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 10 away

creates per match

Tre Penne
2.00
Juvenes / Dogana
1.20

allows per match

Tre Penne
1.08
Juvenes / Dogana
1.40

finishing

Tre Penne+0.00on par
Juvenes / Dogana+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tre Penne ↓

Juvenes / Dogana →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Tre Penne or draw
74%
Tre Penne or Juvenes / Dogana
76%
Draw or Juvenes / Dogana
50%

Winning margin

Tre Penne wins by 2+
27%
Juvenes / Dogana wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Tre Penne 1+ goals
82%
Tre Penne 2+ goals
51%
Tre Penne 3+ goals
24%
Juvenes / Dogana 1+ goals
68%
Juvenes / Dogana 2+ goals
32%
Juvenes / Dogana 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Tre Penne (draw refunded)
66%
Juvenes / Dogana (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tre Penne at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.08 · 13 matches

Juvenes / Dogana away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.40 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tre Penne attack 2.00 + Juvenes / Dogana defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.70

Juvenes / Dogana attack 1.20 + Tre Penne defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Tre Penne scores more
50%
level
24%
Juvenes / Dogana scores more
26%

Tre Penne at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Tre Penne will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Coppa Titano: Tre Penne 1–3 Juvenes / Dogana

Juvenes / Dogana beat Tre Penne 3-1 in Coppa Titano on November 30, 2022.

The match was played at Stadio di Dogana Ezio Conti in Dogana.