Juvenes / Dogana 0–3 Tre Penne: Result & Stats

Juvenes / Dogana

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Tre Penne

12/14/2022

Coppa Titano · Quarter-finalsCampo Sportivo di Acquaviva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Juvenes / Dogana25%

×Draw24%

Tre Penne51%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Juvenes / DoganaExpected goals in this matchTre Penne

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.10

1.70

Juvenes / Dogana

1.10

Tre Penne

1.70

Tre Penne creates 55% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 14 away

1.00

creates per match

2.00

1.40

allows per match

1.21

creates per match

Juvenes / Dogana

1.00

Tre Penne

2.00

allows per match

Juvenes / Dogana

1.40

Tre Penne

1.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Juvenes / Dogana+0.00on par

Tre Penne+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Juvenes / Dogana ↓

Tre Penne →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–110%

0–29%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–210%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Juvenes / Dogana or draw

49%

Juvenes / Dogana or Tre Penne

76%

Draw or Tre Penne

75%

Winning margin

Juvenes / Dogana wins by 2+

9%

Tre Penne wins by 2+

28%

Team goals

Juvenes / Dogana 1+ goals

67%

Juvenes / Dogana 2+ goals

30%

Juvenes / Dogana 3+ goals

10%

Tre Penne 1+ goals

82%

Tre Penne 2+ goals

51%

Tre Penne 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Juvenes / Dogana (draw refunded)

32%

Tre Penne (draw refunded)

68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Juvenes / Dogana at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.40 · 10 matches

Tre Penne away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.21 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Juvenes / Dogana attack 1.00 + Tre Penne defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.10

Tre Penne attack 2.00 + Juvenes / Dogana defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Juvenes / Dogana scores more

25%

level

24%

Tre Penne scores more

51%

Tre Penne at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Tre Penne will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff