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Tre Penne vs Floriana — UEFA Europa Conference League 2021

Tre Penne
Tre Penne
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Floriana
Floriana
7/18/2024UEFA Europa Conference LeagueUEFA Europa Conference League · 1st Qualifying RoundStadio Olimpico di Serravalle

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Tre Penne27%
×Draw23%
Floriana50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tre Penne
1.32
Floriana
1.85

Floriana creates 40% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 5 away

creates per match

Tre Penne
0.25
Floriana
1.20

allows per match

Tre Penne
2.50
Floriana
2.40

finishing

Tre Penne+0.00on par
Floriana+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tre Penne ↓

Floriana →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Tre Penne or draw
50%
Tre Penne or Floriana
77%
Draw or Floriana
73%

Winning margin

Tre Penne wins by 2+
12%
Floriana wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Tre Penne 1+ goals
73%
Tre Penne 2+ goals
38%
Tre Penne 3+ goals
15%
Floriana 1+ goals
84%
Floriana 2+ goals
55%
Floriana 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Tre Penne (draw refunded)
36%
Floriana (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tre Penne at home — creates 0.25, concedes 2.50 · 4 matches

Floriana away — creates 1.20, concedes 2.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tre Penne attack 0.25 + Floriana defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 1.32

Floriana attack 1.20 + Tre Penne defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 1.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Tre Penne scores more
27%
level
23%
Floriana scores more
50%

Floriana at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Floriana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tre Penne vs Floriana

Tre Penne and Floriana drew 1-1 in UEFA Europa Conference League on July 18, 2024.

The match was played at Stadio Olimpico di Serravalle in Serravalle.