Floriana 3–1 Tre Penne: Result & Stats

Floriana

FT

3 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Tre Penne

7/11/2024

UEFA Europa Conference League · 1st Qualifying RoundTony Bezzina Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Floriana86%

×Draw10%

Tre Penne4%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FlorianaExpected goals in this matchTre Penne

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.98

0.53

Floriana

2.98

Tre Penne

0.53

Floriana creates 462% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 4 away

1.20

creates per match

0.25

0.80

allows per match

4.75

creates per match

Floriana

1.20

Tre Penne

0.25

allows per match

Floriana

0.80

Tre Penne

4.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Floriana+0.00on par

Tre Penne+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Floriana ↓

Tre Penne →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–12%

0–20%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–15%

1–21%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–17%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–014%

3–17%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–010%

4–15%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (14%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Floriana or draw

96%

Floriana or Tre Penne

90%

Draw or Tre Penne

14%

Winning margin

Floriana wins by 2+

67%

Tre Penne wins by 2+

1%

Team goals

Floriana 1+ goals

95%

Floriana 2+ goals

79%

Floriana 3+ goals

56%

Tre Penne 1+ goals

41%

Tre Penne 2+ goals

10%

Tre Penne 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Floriana (draw refunded)

95%

Tre Penne (draw refunded)

5%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Floriana at home — creates 1.20, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches

Tre Penne away — creates 0.25, concedes 4.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Floriana attack 1.20 + Tre Penne defence 4.75 → ÷2 → 2.98

Tre Penne attack 0.25 + Floriana defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 86%?"

Floriana scores more

86%

level

10%

Tre Penne scores more

4%

Floriana at 86% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 86% does not mean "Floriana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff