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Tre Penne vs Dinamo Batumi — UEFA Europa Conference League 2021

Tre Penne
Tre Penne
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 3
Dinamo Batumi
Dinamo Batumi
7/8/2021UEFA Europa Conference LeagueUEFA Europa Conference League · 1st Qualifying RoundStadio Olimpico di Serravalle

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Tre Penne13%
×Draw19%
Dinamo Batumi68%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tre Penne
0.82
Dinamo Batumi
2.15

Dinamo Batumi creates 162% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 5 away

creates per match

Tre Penne
0.25
Dinamo Batumi
1.80

allows per match

Tre Penne
2.50
Dinamo Batumi
1.40

finishing

Tre Penne+0.00on par
Dinamo Batumi+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tre Penne ↓

Dinamo Batumi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–111%
0–212%
0–39%
0–45%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–24%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (12%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Tre Penne or draw
32%
Tre Penne or Dinamo Batumi
81%
Draw or Dinamo Batumi
87%

Winning margin

Tre Penne wins by 2+
4%
Dinamo Batumi wins by 2+
43%

Team goals

Tre Penne 1+ goals
56%
Tre Penne 2+ goals
20%
Tre Penne 3+ goals
5%
Dinamo Batumi 1+ goals
88%
Dinamo Batumi 2+ goals
63%
Dinamo Batumi 3+ goals
36%

Draw no bet

Tre Penne (draw refunded)
16%
Dinamo Batumi (draw refunded)
84%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tre Penne at home — creates 0.25, concedes 2.50 · 4 matches

Dinamo Batumi away — creates 1.80, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tre Penne attack 0.25 + Dinamo Batumi defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 0.82

Dinamo Batumi attack 1.80 + Tre Penne defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Tre Penne scores more
13%
level
19%
Dinamo Batumi scores more
68%

Dinamo Batumi at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Dinamo Batumi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tre Penne vs Dinamo Batumi

Dinamo Batumi beat Tre Penne 4-0 in UEFA Europa Conference League on July 8, 2021.

The match was played at Stadio Olimpico di Serravalle in Serravalle.