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Dinamo Batumi vs Tre Penne — UEFA Europa Conference League 2021

Dinamo Batumi
Dinamo Batumi
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Tre Penne
Tre Penne
7/15/2021UEFA Europa Conference LeagueUEFA Europa Conference League · 1st Qualifying RoundBatumi Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Dinamo Batumi79%
×Draw13%
Tre Penne8%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dinamo Batumi
2.88
Tre Penne
0.79

Dinamo Batumi creates 265% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 4 away

creates per match

Dinamo Batumi
1.00
Tre Penne
0.25

allows per match

Dinamo Batumi
1.33
Tre Penne
4.75

finishing

Dinamo Batumi+0.00on par
Tre Penne+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Batumi ↓

Tre Penne →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–16%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–08%
4–16%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Dinamo Batumi or draw
92%
Dinamo Batumi or Tre Penne
87%
Draw or Tre Penne
21%

Winning margin

Dinamo Batumi wins by 2+
59%
Tre Penne wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Dinamo Batumi 1+ goals
94%
Dinamo Batumi 2+ goals
78%
Dinamo Batumi 3+ goals
54%
Tre Penne 1+ goals
55%
Tre Penne 2+ goals
19%
Tre Penne 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Batumi (draw refunded)
91%
Tre Penne (draw refunded)
9%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Batumi at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

Tre Penne away — creates 0.25, concedes 4.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Batumi attack 1.00 + Tre Penne defence 4.75 → ÷2 → 2.88

Tre Penne attack 0.25 + Dinamo Batumi defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 79%?"

Dinamo Batumi scores more
79%
level
13%
Tre Penne scores more
8%

Dinamo Batumi at 79% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 79% does not mean "Dinamo Batumi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UEFA Europa Conference League: Dinamo Batumi 3–0 Tre Penne

Dinamo Batumi beat Tre Penne 3-0 in UEFA Europa Conference League on July 15, 2021.

The match was played at Batumi Arena in Batumi.