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Tre Penne vs Cosmos — Coppa Titano 2020

Tre Penne
Tre Penneadvanced
FT
4 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Cosmos
Cosmos
10/27/2021Coppa TitanoCoppa Titano · Round of 16Campo Sportivo di Fiorentino Federico Crescentini

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Tre Penne55%
×Draw21%
Cosmos24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tre Penne
2.10
Cosmos
1.34

Tre Penne creates 57% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 5 away

creates per match

Tre Penne
2.00
Cosmos
1.60

allows per match

Tre Penne
1.08
Cosmos
2.20

finishing

Tre Penne+0.00on par
Cosmos+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tre Penne ↓

Cosmos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Tre Penne or draw
76%
Tre Penne or Cosmos
79%
Draw or Cosmos
45%

Winning margin

Tre Penne wins by 2+
33%
Cosmos wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Tre Penne 1+ goals
88%
Tre Penne 2+ goals
62%
Tre Penne 3+ goals
35%
Cosmos 1+ goals
74%
Cosmos 2+ goals
39%
Cosmos 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Tre Penne (draw refunded)
69%
Cosmos (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tre Penne at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.08 · 13 matches

Cosmos away — creates 1.60, concedes 2.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tre Penne attack 2.00 + Cosmos defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 2.10

Cosmos attack 1.60 + Tre Penne defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Tre Penne scores more
55%
level
21%
Cosmos scores more
24%

Tre Penne at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Tre Penne will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tre Penne vs Cosmos

Tre Penne beat Cosmos 4-2 in Coppa Titano on October 27, 2021.

The match was played at Campo Sportivo di Fiorentino Federico Crescentini in Fiorentino.