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Cosmos vs Tre Penne — Coppa Titano 2020

Cosmos
Cosmos
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Tre Penne
Tre Penne
9/27/2023Coppa TitanoCoppa Titano · Round of 16Campo Sportivo di Acquaviva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Cosmos22%
×Draw23%
Tre Penne55%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cosmos
1.03
Tre Penne
1.79

Tre Penne creates 74% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 14 away

creates per match

Cosmos
0.86
Tre Penne
2.00

allows per match

Cosmos
1.57
Tre Penne
1.21

finishing

Cosmos+0.00on par
Tre Penne+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cosmos ↓

Tre Penne →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–111%
0–210%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Cosmos or draw
45%
Cosmos or Tre Penne
77%
Draw or Tre Penne
78%

Winning margin

Cosmos wins by 2+
8%
Tre Penne wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

Cosmos 1+ goals
64%
Cosmos 2+ goals
28%
Cosmos 3+ goals
9%
Tre Penne 1+ goals
83%
Tre Penne 2+ goals
53%
Tre Penne 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Cosmos (draw refunded)
28%
Tre Penne (draw refunded)
72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cosmos at home — creates 0.86, concedes 1.57 · 7 matches

Tre Penne away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.21 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cosmos attack 0.86 + Tre Penne defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.03

Tre Penne attack 2.00 + Cosmos defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Cosmos scores more
22%
level
23%
Tre Penne scores more
55%

Tre Penne at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Tre Penne will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Coppa Titano: Cosmos 1–1 Tre Penne

Cosmos and Tre Penne drew 1-1 in Coppa Titano on September 27, 2023.

The match was played at Campo Sportivo di Acquaviva in Acquaviva.