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Tre Penne vs Cailungo — Coppa Titano 2020

Tre Penne
Tre Penneadvanced
FT
4 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Cailungo
Cailungo
10/22/2024Coppa TitanoCoppa Titano · Round of 16Stadio Fonte Dell'Ovo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Tre Penne67%
×Draw20%
Cailungo13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tre Penne
2.00
Cailungo
0.74

Tre Penne creates 170% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 5 away

creates per match

Tre Penne
2.00
Cailungo
0.40

allows per match

Tre Penne
1.08
Cailungo
2.00

finishing

Tre Penne+0.00on par
Cailungo+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tre Penne ↓

Cailungo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Tre Penne or draw
87%
Tre Penne or Cailungo
80%
Draw or Cailungo
33%

Winning margin

Tre Penne wins by 2+
42%
Cailungo wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Tre Penne 1+ goals
86%
Tre Penne 2+ goals
59%
Tre Penne 3+ goals
32%
Cailungo 1+ goals
52%
Cailungo 2+ goals
17%
Cailungo 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Tre Penne (draw refunded)
84%
Cailungo (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tre Penne at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.08 · 13 matches

Cailungo away — creates 0.40, concedes 2.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tre Penne attack 2.00 + Cailungo defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.00

Cailungo attack 0.40 + Tre Penne defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Tre Penne scores more
67%
level
20%
Cailungo scores more
13%

Tre Penne at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Tre Penne will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Coppa Titano: Tre Penne 4–1 Cailungo

Tre Penne beat Cailungo 4-1 in Coppa Titano on October 22, 2024.

The match was played at Stadio Fonte Dell'Ovo in Città di San Marino.