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Cailungo vs Tre Penne — Coppa Titano 2020

Cailungo
Cailungo
FT
0 – 6
HT: 0 – 4
Tre Penne
Tre Penneadvanced
9/25/2024Coppa TitanoCoppa Titano · Round of 16Stadio Fonte Dell'Ovo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Cailungo17%
×Draw21%
Tre Penne62%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cailungo
0.94
Tre Penne
2.00

Tre Penne creates 113% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 14 away

creates per match

Cailungo
0.67
Tre Penne
2.00

allows per match

Cailungo
2.00
Tre Penne
1.21

finishing

Cailungo+0.00on par
Tre Penne+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cailungo ↓

Tre Penne →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–111%
0–211%
0–37%
0–44%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–37%
1–43%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–25%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Cailungo or draw
38%
Cailungo or Tre Penne
79%
Draw or Tre Penne
83%

Winning margin

Cailungo wins by 2+
6%
Tre Penne wins by 2+
38%

Team goals

Cailungo 1+ goals
61%
Cailungo 2+ goals
24%
Cailungo 3+ goals
7%
Tre Penne 1+ goals
86%
Tre Penne 2+ goals
59%
Tre Penne 3+ goals
32%

Draw no bet

Cailungo (draw refunded)
22%
Tre Penne (draw refunded)
78%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cailungo at home — creates 0.67, concedes 2.00 · 6 matches

Tre Penne away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.21 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cailungo attack 0.67 + Tre Penne defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 0.94

Tre Penne attack 2.00 + Cailungo defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Cailungo scores more
17%
level
21%
Tre Penne scores more
62%

Tre Penne at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Tre Penne will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cailungo vs Tre Penne

Tre Penne beat Cailungo 6-0 in Coppa Titano on September 25, 2024.

The match was played at Stadio Fonte Dell'Ovo in Città di San Marino.