Trat FC 4–1 Muangkan United: Result & Stats

Trat FC

FT

4 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Muangkan United

4/16/2022

Thai League 2 · Round 32Trat Provincial Central Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Trat FC49%

×Draw22%

Muangkan United30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Trat FCExpected goals in this matchMuangkan United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.00

1.53

Trat FC

2.00

Muangkan United

1.53

Trat FC creates 31% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 17 away

1.87

creates per match

2.12

0.93

allows per match

2.12

creates per match

Trat FC

1.87

Muangkan United

2.12

allows per match

Trat FC

0.93

Muangkan United

2.12

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Trat FC+0.00on par

Muangkan United+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Trat FC ↓

Muangkan United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

68%32%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Trat FC or draw

70%

Trat FC or Muangkan United

78%

Draw or Muangkan United

51%

Winning margin

Trat FC wins by 2+

28%

Muangkan United wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Trat FC 1+ goals

86%

Trat FC 2+ goals

59%

Trat FC 3+ goals

32%

Muangkan United 1+ goals

78%

Muangkan United 2+ goals

45%

Muangkan United 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Trat FC (draw refunded)

62%

Muangkan United (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Trat FC at home — creates 1.87, concedes 0.93 · 84 matches

Muangkan United away — creates 2.12, concedes 2.12 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Trat FC attack 1.87 + Muangkan United defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 2.00

Muangkan United attack 2.12 + Trat FC defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Trat FC scores more

49%

level

22%

Muangkan United scores more

30%

Trat FC at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Trat FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff