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Muangkan United vs Trat FC — Thai League 2 2018

Muangkan United
Muangkan United
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Trat FC
Trat FC
11/27/2021Thai League 2Thai League 2 · Round 16Kanchanaburi Provincial Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Muangkan United48%
×Draw23%
Trat FC29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Muangkan United
1.79
Trat FC
1.36

Muangkan United creates 32% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 84 away

creates per match

Muangkan United
2.00
Trat FC
1.20

allows per match

Muangkan United
1.53
Trat FC
1.57

finishing

Muangkan United+0.00on par
Trat FC+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Muangkan United ↓

Trat FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Muangkan United or draw
71%
Muangkan United or Trat FC
77%
Draw or Trat FC
52%

Winning margin

Muangkan United wins by 2+
26%
Trat FC wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Muangkan United 1+ goals
83%
Muangkan United 2+ goals
53%
Muangkan United 3+ goals
26%
Trat FC 1+ goals
74%
Trat FC 2+ goals
39%
Trat FC 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Muangkan United (draw refunded)
62%
Trat FC (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Muangkan United at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.53 · 17 matches

Trat FC away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.57 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Muangkan United attack 2.00 + Trat FC defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.79

Trat FC attack 1.20 + Muangkan United defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Muangkan United scores more
48%
level
23%
Trat FC scores more
29%

Muangkan United at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Muangkan United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Muangkan United vs Trat FC

Muangkan United and Trat FC drew 2-2 in Thai League 2 on November 27, 2021.

The match was played at Kanchanaburi Provincial Stadium in Kanchanaburi.