Trat FC 3–3 Lampang FC: Result & Stats

Trat FC

FT

3 – 3

HT: 3 – 1

Lampang FC

I. Marom 45+1'

Conrado 32'

Valdo 2'

W. Srivichai 87'

Andrey Coutinho 48'

Lucas Massaro 15' (pen)

5/28/2022

Thai League 2 · Promotion Play-offs - FinalTrat Provincial Central Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 72+ matches

Trat FC48%

×Draw24%

Lampang FC28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Trat FCExpected goals in this matchLampang FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.66

1.21

Trat FC

1.66

Lampang FC

1.21

Trat FC creates 37% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 90 away

1.79

creates per match

1.44

0.99

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

Trat FC

1.79

Lampang FC

1.44

allows per match

Trat FC

0.99

Lampang FC

1.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Trat FC+0.00on par

Lampang FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Trat FC ↓

Lampang FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Trat FC or draw

72%

Trat FC or Lampang FC

76%

Draw or Lampang FC

52%

Winning margin

Trat FC wins by 2+

25%

Lampang FC wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Trat FC 1+ goals

81%

Trat FC 2+ goals

49%

Trat FC 3+ goals

23%

Lampang FC 1+ goals

70%

Lampang FC 2+ goals

34%

Lampang FC 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Trat FC (draw refunded)

63%

Lampang FC (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Trat FC at home — creates 1.79, concedes 0.99 · 72 matches

Lampang FC away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.53 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Trat FC attack 1.79 + Lampang FC defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.66

Lampang FC attack 1.44 + Trat FC defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Trat FC scores more

48%

level

24%

Lampang FC scores more

28%

Trat FC at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Trat FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'

Valdo

15'

Lucas MassaroPenalty

32'

Conrado

45+1'

I. Marom

46'

K. Kasemkulwilai← Jakkrawut Songma

46'

Deyvison← Lucas Massaro

48'

Andrey Coutinho

67'

T. Nakarawong← P. Pongthong

74'

K. Sompittanurak← A. Waenlor

75'

K. Premthanakoon← P. Jarunai

84'

N. Buasri← Andrey Coutinho

84'

W. Marom← A. Jaroentham

87'

W. Srivichai

90+3'

Valdo

90'

S. Sutisuk← P. Failai

Trat

Lampang

83

Yen-Arrom

5

▼

Waenlor

6

▼

Jaroentha

3

Janntasre

18

⚽

▼

Coutinho

32

Bamba

20

Tanee

30

⚽

Srivichai

9

⚽

▼

Massaro

10

Thirawats

19

▼

Songma

18

Srirueng

4

Katano

5

▼

Failai

3

Tun

14

▼

Pongthong

99

⚽

Marom

27

Supma

7

▼

Jarunai

39

Janchaich

33

⚽

Valdo

11

⚽

Conrado

Manager: S. Chuayboonchum

67'▲T. Nakarawong←▼P. Pongthong

75'▲K. Premthanakoon←▼P. Jarunai

90'▲S. Sutisuk←▼P. Failai

Trat FC substitutes

8Nakarawong28Premthanakoon10Sutisuk15Thanachartkun16Jamroensri25Mingsamorn26Uttramara41Ponprasit56Insao

Manager: S. Yothee

46'▲K. Kasemkulwilai←▼Jakkrawut Songma

46'▲Deyvison←▼Lucas Massaro

74'▲K. Sompittanurak←▼A. Waenlor

84'▲N. Buasri←▼Andrey Coutinho

84'▲W. Marom←▼A. Jaroentham

Lampang FC substitutes

7Kasemkulwilai27Deyvison14Sompittanurak11Buasri23Marom15Prissa24Moosawat54Puakpralab77Phithakchai