Trat FC 4–2 Lampang FC: Result & Stats

Trat FC

FT

4 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Lampang FC

4/23/2022

Thai League 2 · Round 33Trat Provincial Central Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 84+ matches

Trat FC50%

×Draw24%

Lampang FC26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Trat FCExpected goals in this matchLampang FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

1.16

Trat FC

1.71

Lampang FC

1.16

Trat FC creates 47% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 102 away

1.87

creates per match

1.39

0.93

allows per match

1.54

creates per match

Trat FC

1.87

Lampang FC

1.39

allows per match

Trat FC

0.93

Lampang FC

1.54

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Trat FC+0.00on par

Lampang FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Trat FC ↓

Lampang FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Trat FC or draw

74%

Trat FC or Lampang FC

76%

Draw or Lampang FC

50%

Winning margin

Trat FC wins by 2+

27%

Lampang FC wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Trat FC 1+ goals

82%

Trat FC 2+ goals

51%

Trat FC 3+ goals

24%

Lampang FC 1+ goals

69%

Lampang FC 2+ goals

32%

Lampang FC 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Trat FC (draw refunded)

66%

Lampang FC (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Trat FC at home — creates 1.87, concedes 0.93 · 84 matches

Lampang FC away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.54 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Trat FC attack 1.87 + Lampang FC defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.71

Lampang FC attack 1.39 + Trat FC defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Trat FC scores more

50%

level

24%

Lampang FC scores more

26%

Trat FC at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Trat FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff