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Trat FC vs Khonkaen — Thai League 2 2018

Trat FC
Trat FC
FT
2 – 2
Khonkaen
Khonkaen
9/8/2018Thai League 2Thai League 2 · Round 26Trat Provincial Central Stadium (Trat)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

Trat FC56%
×Draw23%
Khonkaen21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Trat FC
1.77
Khonkaen
0.98

Trat FC creates 81% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 65 away

creates per match

Trat FC
1.87
Khonkaen
1.02

allows per match

Trat FC
0.93
Khonkaen
1.66

finishing

Trat FC+0.00on par
Khonkaen+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Trat FC ↓

Khonkaen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Trat FC or draw
79%
Trat FC or Khonkaen
77%
Draw or Khonkaen
44%

Winning margin

Trat FC wins by 2+
31%
Khonkaen wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Trat FC 1+ goals
83%
Trat FC 2+ goals
53%
Trat FC 3+ goals
26%
Khonkaen 1+ goals
62%
Khonkaen 2+ goals
26%
Khonkaen 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Trat FC (draw refunded)
73%
Khonkaen (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Trat FC at home — creates 1.87, concedes 0.93 · 84 matches

Khonkaen away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.66 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Trat FC attack 1.87 + Khonkaen defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.77

Khonkaen attack 1.02 + Trat FC defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Trat FC scores more
56%
level
23%
Khonkaen scores more
21%

Trat FC at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Trat FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Thai League 2: Trat FC 2–2 Khonkaen

Trat FC and Khonkaen drew 2-2 in Thai League 2 on September 8, 2018.

The match was played at Trat Provincial Central Stadium (Trat).