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Khonkaen vs Trat FC — Thai League 2 2018

Khonkaen
Khonkaen
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Trat FC
Trat FC
11/7/2021Thai League 2Thai League 2 · Round 12Khon Kaen Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

Khonkaen45%
×Draw26%
Trat FC29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Khonkaen
1.51
Trat FC
1.15

Khonkaen creates 31% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 84 away

creates per match

Khonkaen
1.45
Trat FC
1.20

allows per match

Khonkaen
1.09
Trat FC
1.57

finishing

Khonkaen+0.00on par
Trat FC+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Khonkaen ↓

Trat FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Khonkaen or draw
71%
Khonkaen or Trat FC
74%
Draw or Trat FC
55%

Winning margin

Khonkaen wins by 2+
23%
Trat FC wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Khonkaen 1+ goals
78%
Khonkaen 2+ goals
44%
Khonkaen 3+ goals
19%
Trat FC 1+ goals
68%
Trat FC 2+ goals
32%
Trat FC 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Khonkaen (draw refunded)
61%
Trat FC (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Khonkaen at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.09 · 65 matches

Trat FC away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.57 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Khonkaen attack 1.45 + Trat FC defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.51

Trat FC attack 1.20 + Khonkaen defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Khonkaen scores more
45%
level
26%
Trat FC scores more
29%

Khonkaen at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Khonkaen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Khonkaen vs Trat FC

Khonkaen and Trat FC drew 1-1 in Thai League 2 on November 7, 2021.

The match was played at Khon Kaen Stadium in Khon Kaen.