Trat FC 1–1 Customs United: Result & Stats

Trat FC

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Customs United

11/9/2022

Thai League 2 · Round 7Trat Provincial Central Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 84+ matches

Trat FC57%

×Draw23%

Customs United20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Trat FCExpected goals in this matchCustoms United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.86

1.00

Trat FC

1.86

Customs United

1.00

Trat FC creates 86% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 87 away

1.87

creates per match

1.06

0.93

allows per match

1.85

creates per match

Trat FC

1.87

Customs United

1.06

allows per match

Trat FC

0.93

Customs United

1.85

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Trat FC+0.00on par

Customs United+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Trat FC ↓

Customs United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Trat FC or draw

80%

Trat FC or Customs United

77%

Draw or Customs United

43%

Winning margin

Trat FC wins by 2+

33%

Customs United wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Trat FC 1+ goals

84%

Trat FC 2+ goals

55%

Trat FC 3+ goals

28%

Customs United 1+ goals

63%

Customs United 2+ goals

26%

Customs United 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Trat FC (draw refunded)

74%

Customs United (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Trat FC at home — creates 1.87, concedes 0.93 · 84 matches

Customs United away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.85 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Trat FC attack 1.87 + Customs United defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.86

Customs United attack 1.06 + Trat FC defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Trat FC scores more

57%

level

23%

Customs United scores more

20%

Trat FC at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Trat FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff