Customs United 1–2 Trat FC: Result & Stats

Customs United

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Trat FC

10/23/2021

Thai League 2 · Round 10Lat Krabang 54 Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 84+ matches

Customs United38%

×Draw26%

Trat FC37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Customs UnitedExpected goals in this matchTrat FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.36

Customs United

1.38

Trat FC

1.36

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 87 home / 84 away

1.18

creates per match

1.20

1.53

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Customs United

1.18

Trat FC

1.20

allows per match

Customs United

1.53

Trat FC

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Customs United+0.00on par

Trat FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Customs United ↓

Trat FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Customs United or draw

63%

Customs United or Trat FC

74%

Draw or Trat FC

62%

Winning margin

Customs United wins by 2+

17%

Trat FC wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Customs United 1+ goals

75%

Customs United 2+ goals

40%

Customs United 3+ goals

16%

Trat FC 1+ goals

74%

Trat FC 2+ goals

39%

Trat FC 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Customs United (draw refunded)

51%

Trat FC (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Customs United at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.53 · 87 matches

Trat FC away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.57 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Customs United attack 1.18 + Trat FC defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.38

Trat FC attack 1.20 + Customs United defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Customs United scores more

38%

level

26%

Trat FC scores more

37%

Customs United at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Customs United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff